Most Current Information
UPDATE @ 11:45 PM | A line of storms continues to head in our direction. As expected, the worst storms have been to the north where several tornado warnings have persisted over the last several hours.
The instability remains in the atmosphere as of right now, however storm generation on the southern portion of the line, currently over central Alabama, has been much less than further north with small cells firing up in Tuscaloosa, AL, south of Birmingham. Timing continues to be inline with previous 1 to 3 AM timeframe.
Hopefully the current trend continues and storms fail to generate in any meaningful numbers in the central AL area as the system moves into the area.
The National Weather Service is forecasting a slight risk of severe weather on the evening of Tuesday, May 20th and into Wednesday, May 21st, 2025.
Current models and forecast show a risk of severe weather impacting the Coweta County area between 2 and 4 AM Wednesday morning.
The two most used models at this time, the HRRR and NAM, see below, are both signaling that as the squall line of storms arrives in the area it will began to dissipate with atmospheric instability weakening in the early morning hours.
Without a doubt, the further north and west within the state you go, the higher the danger for significant severe weather, however models have been trending with a slightly longer and longer period of instability over the last 24 hours.
With this trend of longer instability, the storms have been making it further and further south while retaining severity. This has, at this time, left us on the cusp of severe and non-severe impact from the storms.
At this time, I believe that the proper thing to do is err on the side of caution and prepare for severe weather to impact the area in the early morning hours. This means preparing for receiving alerts that will wake you up, from multiple sources. Ensure that you have a safe place within your house to escape to in the event a warning is issued.
Our biggest threat at this time seems to be from very strong straight line winds as the storms come through the area – these winds could be 70 MPH or stronger – with heavy winds and rain with possible hail mixed in.
There is a slight risk of an embedded tornado within the line of storms, if they stay together, however the risk will be much less than that of the straight line winds… which can produce as much damage themselves.
Model Runs
Current as of 11:30 PM
HRRR – High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
All images show model from Midnight through 5 AM
NAM – North American Model
All images show model from Midnight through 5 AM
SPC Outlooks
NWS Information
